Mechanical equipment industry: Why can the oil service sector go out and continue its independent market?
At present, the core reasons for the oil service sector to be able to go out of the independent market and continue to have a high probability are threefold: one is the bottom of the industry recovery, the high trend is established; the second is weak relative to the macro economy; the third is the market to the sector and high quality stocks Cognition is still poorly expected. The bottom of the oil service industry is recovering, and the trend of high prosperity in the next 2-3 years is established. There are two major logics: one is that the international crude oil price maintains a relatively high oil price driving logic, and the other is the policy-driven logic of strengthening the domestic energy strategic security policy.
The oil price has remained relatively high and has now been transmitted to the oil service server and equipment. Let us first review the changing path of oil prices in this round, and try to find the specific conduction time points in the current oil price transmission process. After the oil price fell below 30 US dollars in early 2016, the oil rebounded weakly. In 2017, the price of oil continued to rise upwards in the first half of 2018. The current oil price remained at a high level of 70-80 US dollars. Looking at the oil price on the oil service industry chain The conduction process, backtracking the transmission mechanism of the oil service industry chain during the fluctuation of oil price in the range of 60-80 US dollars, we found that when the crude oil price exceeds the oil cost of the oil enterprise, the oil price is the first in the transmission process of the oil service industry chain. Oil companies' revenue and net profit, oil prices remain high, oil companies have high revenues and net profits, and oil-driven capital expenditures and demands are driven by profit, followed by capital expenditure expansion, oil service industry (services and equipment) Benefits, first of all, the increase in the workload of oil service enterprises, the improvement of service data of service enterprises, and the demand for equipment, and the income and profits of equipment enterprises gradually improved.
China's own energy security strategy needs to stack three barrels of oil capital expenditure growth. In addition to the impact of the international crude oil price background, China has its own attributes for the domestic market. At present, the external dependence of domestic crude oil is relatively high, at around 70%. In the context of trade wars, China's energy import security threats exist objectively. In the long run, due to consideration of national energy security strategies, the stable production and production of oil and natural gas will be guaranteed. It is important. From the capital expenditure of three barrels of oil, the capital expenditure of three barrels of oil increased by 22% in the first half of the year, and the annual growth is expected to be around 20%, with a total of 309.3 billion yuan.